2004 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Mark Brunell

14·20

Giants

New York

QB Kurt Warner

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

WAS -3

Total

40

Model margin

+5.0est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

6.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapGiants
  • -0.121EPA / play-0.028
  • 38.9%Success rate43.5%
  • -0.102EPA / dropback-0.017
  • -0.145EPA / rush-0.044
  • 6.6%Explosive rate8.2%
  • 31.9%Third-down rate29.5%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 1.03Points / drive1.65
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.104EPA / play allowed+0.008

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYG
NYGQ1 15:003-7Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:541053Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 7:24529Missed field goal7–0
WASQ1 4:0934Punt7–0
NYGQ1 3:17844Turnover on downs7–0
WASQ2 14:1531Turnover7–6
NYGQ2 13:01138Touchdown7–7
WASQ2 12:5338Punt7–7
NYGQ2 10:40522Punt7–7
WASQ2 7:5636Opp touchdown7–14
WASQ2 6:2126Turnover7–14
NYGQ2 5:3936Field goal7–17
WASQ2 4:3431Punt7–17
NYGQ2 3:211077Field goal7–20
WASQ2 0:37222Missed field goal7–20
WASQ3 15:001355Turnover7–20
NYGQ3 9:45518Missed field goal7–20
WASQ3 7:17519Punt7–20
NYGQ3 5:1539Punt7–20
WASQ3 3:09456Turnover7–20
NYGQ3 1:2230Punt7–20
WASQ4 14:15649Touchdown14–20
NYGQ4 12:0100Turnover14–20
WASQ4 11:51615Turnover14–20
NYGQ4 9:59514Punt14–20
WASQ4 8:09423Turnover14–20
NYGQ4 6:15826Punt14–20
WASQ4 2:1146Turnover on downs14–20
NYGQ4 1:2441Turnover on downs14–20
WASQ4 0:181-2End of half14–20

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Ramsey9/1814213
Mark Brunell10/189211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis20693.50
Mark Brunell22713.50
Patrick Ramsey2178.50
Ladell Betts3113.70
Laveranues Coles1-16-16.00

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner22/3323210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber18422.30
Ron Dayne9121.30
Tim Carter188.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

6.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.4%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.70
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.01