2004 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Mark Brunell

14·20

Giants

New York

QB Kurt Warner

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

WAS -3

Total

40

Model margin

+5.0est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

6.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapGiants
  • -0.121EPA / play-0.028
  • 38.9%Success rate43.5%
  • -0.102EPA / dropback-0.017
  • -0.145EPA / rush-0.044
  • 6.6%Explosive rate8.2%
  • 31.9%Third-down rate29.5%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 1.03Points / drive1.65
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.104EPA / play allowed+0.008

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999

WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG
2022 · W13WAS @ NYG20–20Tie

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Ramsey9/1814213
Mark Brunell10/189211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis20693.50
Mark Brunell22713.50
Patrick Ramsey2178.50
Ladell Betts3113.70
Laveranues Coles1-16-16.00

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner22/3323210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber18422.30
Ron Dayne9121.30
Tim Carter188.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

6.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.4%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.70
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.01