2004 · Week 3 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
WAS -1.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play-0.121
- 42.6%Success rate38.9%
- -0.005EPA / dropback-0.102
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.145
- 9.1%Explosive rate6.6%
- 36.3%Third-down rate31.9%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.44Points / drive1.03
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.080EPA / play allowed-0.104
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 14/29 | 214 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 11 | 19 | 1.7 | 1 |
| ReShard Lee | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 25/43 | 325 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 23 | 94 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.10