Closing spread
PHI -4.5
Total
44
Model margin
+0.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.071
- 44.4%Success rate39.8%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.046
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.0%
- 37.2%Third-down rate32.3%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
- 1.97Points / drive1.23
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.027EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 7–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 54.1 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 13:15 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 10:17 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 6:42 | 9 | 89 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DET | Q1 2:08 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 13–0 |
| PHI | Q1 1:34 | 1 | 29 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| DET | Q1 1:28 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 14–0 |
| PHI | Q2 13:34 | 12 | 92 | Touchdown | 21–0 |
| DET | Q2 5:59 | 7 | 17 | Punt | 21–0 |
| PHI | Q2 2:10 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 21–0 |
| DET | Q2 1:27 | 6 | 64 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| PHI | Q2 0:20 | 2 | 0 | End of half | 21–7 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 65 | Field goal | 24–7 |
| DET | Q3 9:41 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 24–7 |
| PHI | Q3 7:55 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 27–7 |
| DET | Q3 6:42 | 11 | 51 | Turnover on downs | 27–7 |
| PHI | Q3 2:05 | 5 | 14 | Turnover | 27–7 |
| DET | Q4 14:54 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 27–7 |
| PHI | Q4 14:28 | 8 | 79 | Field goal | 30–7 |
| DET | Q4 10:22 | 3 | 29 | Touchdown | 30–13 |
| PHI | Q4 8:34 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 30–13 |
| DET | Q4 6:42 | 10 | 52 | Turnover on downs | 30–13 |
| PHI | Q4 2:52 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 30–13 |
| DET | Q4 1:50 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 30–13 |
| PHI | Q4 0:59 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 30–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 29/42 | 356 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Reno Mahe | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 1 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 21/38 | 199 | 2 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 5 | 43 | 8.6 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Jones | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.90