2004 · Week 3

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

30·13

Lions

Detroit

QB Joey Harrington

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

PHI -4.5

Total

44

Model margin

+0.9est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapLions
  • +0.072EPA / play-0.071
  • 44.4%Success rate39.8%
  • +0.143EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.060EPA / rush-0.046
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.0%
  • 37.2%Third-down rate32.3%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.23
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%
  • -0.027EPA / play allowed+0.013

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 7–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 54.1 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11DET @ PHI9–16PHI
2022 · W1PHI @ DET38–35PHI
2021 · W8PHI @ DET44–6PHI
2019 · W3DET @ PHI27–24DET
2016 · W5PHI @ DET23–24DET
2015 · W12PHI @ DET14–45DET
2013 · W14DET @ PHI20–34PHI
2012 · W6DET @ PHI26–23DET

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb29/4235620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook13443.40
Reno Mahe11717.00
Donovan McNabb5-2-0.41

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington21/3819920
Roy Williams0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shawn Bryson5438.60
Artose Pinner6162.70
Joey Harrington3103.30
Kevin Jones482.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.5%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.90