2004 · Week 3

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

13·3

Dolphins

Miami

QB A.J. Feeley

Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

Total

31

Model margin

-0.9est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapDolphins
  • +0.044EPA / play-0.173
  • 44.9%Success rate35.8%
  • +0.136EPA / dropback-0.181
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.159
  • 10.4%Explosive rate6.9%
  • 44.9%Third-down rate34.6%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 1.83Points / drive0.97
  • 2.1%Turnover rate3.7%
  • -0.133EPA / play allowed-0.054

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 8–3 since 1999

Meetings average 38.4 points. MIA are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15MIA @ PIT15–28PIT
2022 · W7PIT @ MIA10–16MIA
2019 · W8MIA @ PIT14–27PIT
2016 · playoffsMIA @ PIT12–30PIT
2016 · W6PIT @ MIA15–30MIA
2013 · W14MIA @ PIT34–28MIA
2010 · W7PIT @ MIA23–22PIT
2009 · W17PIT @ MIA30–24PIT

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger12/2216311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley221014.60
Jerome Bettis7121.70
Antwaan Randle El144.00
Ben Roethlisberger122.00

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
A.J. Feeley13/2713702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Henry21412.00
Lamar Gordon4102.50
A.J. Feeley410.30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.6%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.47
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.91