Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Total
31
Model margin
-0.9est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play-0.173
- 44.9%Success rate35.8%
- +0.136EPA / dropback-0.181
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.159
- 10.4%Explosive rate6.9%
- 44.9%Third-down rate34.6%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.83Points / drive0.97
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.7%
- -0.133EPA / play allowed-0.054
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. MIA are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 14:43 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 14:32 | 5 | 13 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 12:16 | 7 | 58 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q1 8:09 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q1 7:46 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q1 5:20 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q1 3:36 | 6 | 24 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q1 0:43 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q2 13:31 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q2 8:47 | 8 | 25 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q2 4:31 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q2 2:55 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q2 1:38 | 4 | 28 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q3 12:51 | 7 | 16 | Turnover on downs | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q3 10:20 | 5 | 24 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| MIA | Q3 8:02 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–0 |
| PIT | Q3 6:30 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–0 |
| MIA | Q3 3:55 | 12 | 44 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| PIT | Q4 13:25 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–3 |
| MIA | Q4 11:30 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–3 |
| PIT | Q4 10:24 | 9 | 54 | Touchdown | 13–3 |
| MIA | Q4 6:16 | 5 | 40 | Turnover | 13–3 |
| PIT | Q4 4:01 | 7 | 58 | Turnover on downs | 13–3 |
| MIA | Q4 0:28 | 3 | 15 | End of half | 13–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 12/22 | 163 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 22 | 101 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 13/27 | 137 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Henry | 21 | 41 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Gordon | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| A.J. Feeley | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.6%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.47
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.91