Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play+0.044
- 43.2%Success rate44.9%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.136
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.028
- 8.8%Explosive rate10.4%
- 40.8%Third-down rate44.9%
- 53.2%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.40Points / drive1.83
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.048EPA / play allowed-0.133
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 41–16 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PIT are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 12:48 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 11:48 | 1 | 8 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 11:39 | 7 | 22 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q1 8:36 | 5 | 54 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CIN | Q1 5:53 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PIT | Q1 4:45 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| CIN | Q2 14:13 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 7–14 |
| PIT | Q2 10:28 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 7–14 |
| CIN | Q2 8:39 | 4 | 32 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| PIT | Q2 6:51 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 10–14 |
| CIN | Q2 4:32 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 10–14 |
| PIT | Q2 1:43 | 9 | 40 | End of half | 10–14 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 71 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| PIT | Q3 8:35 | 3 | 19 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| CIN | Q3 7:17 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| PIT | Q3 5:13 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–14 |
| CIN | Q3 3:35 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 17–14 |
| PIT | Q3 0:44 | 14 | 68 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| CIN | Q4 9:03 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 17–21 |
| PIT | Q4 7:01 | 8 | 39 | Punt | 17–27 |
| CIN | Q4 2:19 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 17–28 |
| CIN | Q4 2:03 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 17–28 |
| PIT | Q4 1:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/37 | 164 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 24 | 123 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Cliff Russell | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 17/25 | 174 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 25 | 123 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 2 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.52