Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play+0.044
- 43.2%Success rate44.9%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.136
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.028
- 8.8%Explosive rate10.4%
- 40.8%Third-down rate44.9%
- 53.2%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.40Points / drive1.83
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.048EPA / play allowed-0.133
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/37 | 164 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 24 | 123 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Cliff Russell | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 17/25 | 174 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 25 | 123 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 2 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.52