Closing spread
NYJ -5.5
Total
36
Model margin
+1.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.040EPA / play-0.173
- 45.5%Success rate35.8%
- +0.023EPA / dropback-0.181
- +0.058EPA / rush-0.159
- 10.3%Explosive rate6.9%
- 42.9%Third-down rate34.6%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.86Points / drive0.97
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.7%
- -0.048EPA / play allowed-0.054
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 29–26 since 1999
MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 10:57 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 10:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 8:25 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 7:25 | 6 | 28 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 3:55 | 10 | 40 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 12:53 | 5 | 39 | Punt | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q2 10:12 | 5 | 77 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 7:40 | 8 | 45 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| MIA | Q2 2:10 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 10–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:31 | 3 | 17 | Turnover | 10–6 |
| MIA | Q2 1:08 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 10–9 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–9 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 33 | Opp touchdown | 17–9 |
| MIA | Q3 12:10 | 5 | 29 | Turnover | 17–9 |
| NYJ | Q3 9:10 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–9 |
| MIA | Q3 7:28 | 8 | 45 | Turnover on downs | 17–9 |
| NYJ | Q3 3:39 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–9 |
| MIA | Q3 2:16 | 4 | 30 | Turnover | 17–9 |
| NYJ | Q4 15:00 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 17–9 |
| MIA | Q4 12:44 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–9 |
| NYJ | Q4 11:08 | 7 | 41 | Punt | 17–9 |
| MIA | Q4 6:31 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 17–9 |
| NYJ | Q4 5:08 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 17–9 |
| MIA | Q4 2:23 | 4 | 19 | Turnover | 17–9 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:47 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–9 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 14/24 | 143 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 24 | 110 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Chad Pennington | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 18/33 | 206 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Henry | 18 | 85 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.21
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.36