Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
41
Model margin
+3.9est.
SD perspective
Push chance
6.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 12–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. SD are 9-3-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:47 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 11:34 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 8:41 | 5 | 94 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q1 5:56 | 12 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 14:10 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TEN | Q2 10:50 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 9:13 | 7 | 59 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| TEN | Q2 5:16 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 4:15 | 8 | 51 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| TEN | Q2 0:38 | 2 | 4 | End of half | 7–21 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 30 | Punt | 7–21 |
| TEN | Q3 12:21 | 11 | 35 | Punt | 7–21 |
| LAC | Q3 6:55 | 4 | 51 | Field goal | 7–24 |
| TEN | Q3 4:18 | 16 | 60 | Field goal | 10–24 |
| LAC | Q4 12:26 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| TEN | Q4 12:25 | 11 | 53 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| LAC | Q4 7:04 | 2 | 58 | Touchdown | 17–31 |
| TEN | Q4 6:42 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 17–31 |
| LAC | Q4 5:12 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–31 |
| TEN | Q4 4:08 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 17–37 |
| LAC | Q4 3:25 | 1 | 21 | Touchdown | 17–38 |
| TEN | Q4 3:18 | 8 | 50 | Turnover on downs | 17–38 |
| LAC | Q4 1:06 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 17–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Volek | 39/58 | 278 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Billy Volek | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
6.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.87
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.