Closing spread
SEA -8
Total
44
Model margin
+3.0est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 74 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 9:52 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 8:45 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 7:48 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 6:06 | 13 | 50 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 14:17 | 6 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| SEA | Q2 11:29 | 6 | 68 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| LA | Q2 8:54 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| SEA | Q2 7:21 | 6 | 22 | Missed field goal | 7–17 |
| LA | Q2 5:30 | 7 | 18 | Punt | 7–17 |
| LA | Q2 1:50 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 7–17 |
| SEA | Q2 1:43 | 5 | 90 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| LA | Q2 0:50 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–24 |
| SEA | Q2 0:20 | 3 | 1 | End of half | 7–24 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 41 | Punt | 7–24 |
| SEA | Q3 9:13 | 4 | 46 | Punt | 7–24 |
| LA | Q3 6:53 | 12 | 69 | Field goal | 10–24 |
| SEA | Q3 0:56 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–24 |
| LA | Q4 14:54 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| SEA | Q4 14:04 | 7 | 24 | Field goal | 10–27 |
| LA | Q4 8:42 | 8 | 51 | Touchdown | 17–27 |
| SEA | Q4 5:34 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 23–27 |
| LA | Q4 3:37 | 1 | 41 | Touchdown | 24–27 |
| SEA | Q4 3:30 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 24–27 |
| LA | Q4 1:14 | 4 | 46 | Field goal | 27–27 |
| SEA | Q4 0:08 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–27 |
| LA | OT | 6 | 71 | Touchdown | 33–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 20/35 | 216 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 23 | 150 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.98
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.