Closing spread
NYG -7
Total
40
Model margin
+3.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play-0.028
- 39.8%Success rate43.5%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.044
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- 32.3%Third-down rate29.5%
- 51.0%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.23Points / drive1.65
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed+0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 7–4 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. NYG are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 18/22 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 13 | 65 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Artose Pinner | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Shawn Bryson | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 23/34 | 270 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 22 | 70 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.96