AFC East · 2004
Buffalo Bills
Record
9-7
Net EPA
+0.107est.
Efficiency
How this team plays
Percentile against the teams that played this season, computed from play-by-play.
Offence
Higher is better.
- EPA / play-0.073
- Success rate40.7%
- EPA / dropback-0.012
- EPA / rush-0.139
- Explosive rate8.2%
- Third-down rate35.8%
- Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- Points / drive1.71
- Turnover rate2.7%
← worse in leagueleague averagebetter →
Defence
Oriented so that further right is always better.
- EPA / play allowed-0.135
- Success rate allowed37.3%
- EPA / dropback allowed-0.096
- EPA / rush allowed-0.187
- Explosive rate allowed7.4%
- Pressure rate (proxy)7.9%
- Sack rate7.9%
- Points / drive allowed1.14
← worse in leagueleague averagebetter →
Offensive EPA / play — league shape-0.073 · 26th %ile
Defensive EPA / play allowed — league shape (left is better)-0.135 · 5th %ile
Form
The shape of the season
Rolling four-week EPA per play. The aggregate hides collapses and surges; this shows them.
4-week rolling EPA/play — up is good for both lines.
- Offense
- Defense (prevented)
Betting profile
Against the number
Settled against closing lines. Descriptive, not predictive.
ATS
11-5
+5.8 vs line
Home
5-3
Away
6-2
As favorite
7-2
As dog
4-3
O/U
11-5
+6.4 vs total
Roster
54 players
53 active. Skill players link through to their fantasy page.
Quarterbacks3
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shane Matthews | QB | 34 | 6'3" 199 | 11 | — | ACT |
| 7 | J.P. Losman | QB | 23 | 6'2" 217 | R | — | ACT |
| 11 | Drew Bledsoe | QB | 32 | 6'5" 238 | 11 | — | ACT |
Backs & receivers16
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jonathan Smith | WR | 24 | 5'7" 188 | R | — | ACT |
| 20 | Travis Henry | RB | 27 | 5'9" 215 | 3 | — | ACT |
| 21 | Willis McGahee | RB | 24 | 6'0" 228 | 1 | — | ACT |
| 30 | Dante Brown | RB | 24 | 6'1" 215 | 1 | — | ACT |
| 30 | Dante Brown | RB | 24 | 6'1" 215 | 1 | — | TRD |
| 31 | Daimon Shelton | FB | 33 | 6'0" 262 | 7 | — | ACT |
| 35 | Joe Burns | FB | 26 | 5'9" 215 | 2 | — | ACT |
| 40 | Shaud Williams | RB | 25 | 5'7" 193 | R | — | ACT |
| 80 | Eric Moulds | WR | 31 | 6'2" 210 | 8 | — | ACT |
| 81 | Rod Trafford | TE | 27 | 6'3" 250 | 1 | — | ACT |
| 82 | Josh Reed | WR | 24 | 5'10" 208 | 2 | — | ACT |
| 83 | Lee Evans | WR | 23 | 5'10" 197 | R | — | ACT |
| 85 | Jason Peters | TE | 22 | 6'4" 328 | R | Arkansas | ACT |
| 86 | Bradford Banta | TE | 35 | 6'6" 257 | 10 | — | ACT |
| 88 | Ryan Neufeld | TE | 30 | 6'4" 250 | 5 | — | ACT |
| 89 | Sam Aiken | WR | 25 | 6'2" 204 | 1 | — | ACT |
Offensive line9
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | Chris Villarrial | G | 31 | 6'3" 318 | 8 | — | ACT |
| 61 | Mike Pucillo | G | 25 | 6'4" 311 | 2 | — | ACT |
| 65 | Ross Tucker | C | 25 | 6'4" 316 | 3 | — | ACT |
| 68 | Mike Williams | T | 24 | 6'6" 360 | 2 | — | ACT |
| 70 | Trey Teague | C | 31 | 6'5" 300 | 6 | — | ACT |
| 72 | Lawrence Smith | G | 25 | 6'3" 295 | 2 | — | ACT |
| 73 | Marcus Price | T | 32 | 6'4" 310 | 9 | — | ACT |
| 75 | Jonas Jennings | T | 28 | 6'3" 325 | 3 | — | ACT |
| 79 | Dylan McFarland | T | 24 | 6'5" 290 | R | — | ACT |
Defensive front14
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | Takeo Spikes | OLB | 29 | 6'2" 242 | 6 | — | ACT |
| 53 | Mario Haggan | MLB | 24 | 6'3" 248 | 1 | — | ACT |
| 55 | Angelo Crowell | OLB | 23 | 6'1" 235 | 1 | — | ACT |
| 57 | Josh Stamer | OLB | 28 | 6'2" 238 | 3 | — | ACT |
| 59 | London Fletcher | MLB | 29 | 5'10" 245 | 6 | — | ACT |
| 69 | Tim Anderson | DT | 25 | 6'3" 304 | R | — | ACT |
| 90 | Chris Kelsay | DE | 26 | 6'4" 275 | 1 | — | ACT |
| 92 | Ryan Denney | DE | 27 | 6'7" 275 | 2 | — | ACT |
| 93 | Pat Williams | DT | 33 | 6'3" 317 | 7 | — | ACT |
| 94 | Aaron Schobel | DE | 28 | 6'4" 262 | 3 | — | ACT |
| 95 | Sam Adams | DT | 31 | 6'4" 335 | 10 | — | ACT |
| 96 | Jeff Posey | OLB | 29 | 6'4" 241 | 7 | — | ACT |
| 97 | Justin Bannan | DT | 25 | 6'3" 305 | 2 | — | ACT |
| 98 | Ron Edwards | DT | 25 | 6'3" 320 | 3 | — | ACT |
Secondary10
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nate Clements | CB | 26 | 6'0" 209 | 3 | — | ACT |
| 23 | Troy Vincent | CB | 34 | 6'1" 200 | 12 | — | ACT |
| 24 | Terrence McGee | CB | 25 | 5'9" 195 | 1 | — | ACT |
| 25 | Pierson Prioleau | FS | 27 | 5'11" 188 | 5 | — | ACT |
| 26 | Rashad Baker | FS | 22 | 5'10" 198 | R | — | ACT |
| 27 | Coy Wire | SS | 27 | 6'0" 205 | 2 | — | ACT |
| 28 | Kevin Thomas | CB | 26 | 6'0" 182 | 2 | — | ACT |
| 36 | Lawyer Milloy | SS | 32 | 6'0" 190 | 8 | — | ACT |
| 37 | Jabari Greer | CB | 22 | 5'11" 169 | R | — | ACT |
| 43 | Izell Reese | FS | 30 | 6'2" 195 | 6 | — | ACT |
Specialists2
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Brian Moorman | P | 28 | 6'0" 175 | 5 | — | ACT |
| 9 | Rian Lindell | K | 27 | 6'3" 235 | 4 | — | ACT |
Schedule
16 games
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Spread | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Jaguars | L 10-13 | -3 | -0.159 |
| 2 | @ Raiders | L 10-13 | +3.5 | -0.046 |
| 4 | vs Patriots | L 17-31 | +5.5 | -0.160 |
| 5 | @ Jets | L 14-16 | +6.5 | +0.024 |
| 6 | vs Dolphins | W 20-13 | -4.5 | +0.038 |
| 7 | @ Ravens | L 6-20 | +4.5 | -0.473 |
| 8 | vs Cardinals | W 38-14 | -4.5 | -0.059 |
| 9 | vs Jets | W 22-17 | +3 | -0.022 |
| 10 | @ Patriots | L 6-29 | +7 | -0.644 |
| 11 | vs Rams | W 37-17 | -2 | -0.025 |
| 12 | @ Seahawks | W 38-9 | +4 | +0.193 |
| 13 | @ Dolphins | W 42-32 | -5 | +0.042 |
| 14 | vs Browns | W 37-7 | -11 | -0.039 |
| 15 | @ Bengals | W 33-17 | -3 | -0.140 |
| 16 | @ 49ers | W 41-7 | -10 | +0.223 |
| 17 | vs Steelers | L 24-29 | -9.5 | -0.223 |