Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play-0.012
- 43.2%Success rate41.5%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.091
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- 40.8%Third-down rate34.6%
- 53.2%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.40Points / drive1.47
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.048EPA / play allowed+0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 10–10 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. TEN are 7-12-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 79 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q1 8:29 | 15 | 82 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| CIN | Q2 14:27 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 3–3 |
| TEN | Q2 12:24 | 9 | 48 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| CIN | Q2 8:33 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 3–6 |
| TEN | Q2 6:24 | 15 | 85 | Touchdown | 3–13 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 20 | Opp touchdown | 10–13 |
| TEN | Q3 12:16 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 10–13 |
| CIN | Q3 8:36 | 12 | 35 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| TEN | Q3 4:49 | 5 | 70 | Touchdown | 13–20 |
| CIN | Q3 2:10 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–20 |
| TEN | Q3 1:53 | 4 | 23 | Touchdown | 13–27 |
| CIN | Q3 0:09 | 4 | 70 | Touchdown | 20–27 |
| TEN | Q4 13:47 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 20–27 |
| CIN | Q4 12:35 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 20–27 |
| TEN | Q4 10:40 | 6 | 3 | Punt | 20–27 |
| CIN | Q4 7:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–27 |
| TEN | Q4 5:18 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 20–27 |
| CIN | Q4 4:31 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 20–27 |
| TEN | Q4 2:35 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 20–27 |
| CIN | Q4 2:07 | 8 | 44 | Turnover | 20–27 |
| TEN | Q4 0:24 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/36 | 247 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 17 | 57 | 3.4 | 1 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Volek | 21/32 | 210 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 32 | 147 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Billy Volek | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.40