Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play-0.012
- 43.2%Success rate41.5%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.091
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- 40.8%Third-down rate34.6%
- 53.2%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.40Points / drive1.47
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.048EPA / play allowed+0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. TEN are 6-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/36 | 247 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 17 | 57 | 3.4 | 1 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Volek | 21/32 | 210 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 32 | 147 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Billy Volek | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.40