Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
40
Model margin
+2.4est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play-0.050
- 39.8%Success rate42.6%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.005
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.108
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.1%
- 32.3%Third-down rate36.3%
- 51.0%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.23Points / drive1.44
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.5%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed+0.080
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–7 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DAL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 19/32 | 255 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 19/24 | 235 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 31 | 99 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Randal Williams | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.14
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.42