2004 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Fiedler

14·41

Jets

New York

QB Chad Pennington

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 52°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NYJ -7

Total

35.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJets
  • -0.173EPA / play+0.040
  • 35.8%Success rate45.5%
  • -0.181EPA / dropback+0.023
  • -0.159EPA / rush+0.058
  • 6.9%Explosive rate10.3%
  • 34.6%Third-down rate42.9%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
  • 0.97Points / drive1.86
  • 3.7%Turnover rate1.5%
  • -0.054EPA / play allowed-0.048

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 28–26 since 1999

MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA
2022 · W5MIA @ NYJ17–40NYJ

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler20/4121822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sammy Morris11484.40
Jay Fiedler12626.00
Travis Minor441.00

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Pennington11/1918930
Quincy Carter1/1800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin191156.11
LaMont Jordan141158.21
Chad Pennington22211.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

4.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.21
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.20