Closing spread
NYJ -7
Total
35.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.173EPA / play+0.040
- 35.8%Success rate45.5%
- -0.181EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.159EPA / rush+0.058
- 6.9%Explosive rate10.3%
- 34.6%Third-down rate42.9%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 0.97Points / drive1.86
- 3.7%Turnover rate1.5%
- -0.054EPA / play allowed-0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 29–26 since 1999
MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 12:33 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 10:29 | 4 | 16 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 8:58 | 3 | 52 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 7:26 | 6 | -1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 5:19 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 4:02 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 1:58 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 0:32 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 13:36 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q2 11:53 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 10:50 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q2 8:45 | 9 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 4:35 | 6 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| MIA | Q2 1:07 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:20 | 3 | 39 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| MIA | Q3 10:29 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 7–24 |
| NYJ | Q3 8:14 | 9 | 94 | Touchdown | 7–31 |
| MIA | Q3 2:10 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 7–31 |
| NYJ | Q3 1:06 | 5 | 33 | Field goal | 7–34 |
| MIA | Q4 12:50 | 3 | 9 | Turnover | 7–34 |
| NYJ | Q4 12:07 | 2 | 41 | Touchdown | 7–41 |
| MIA | Q4 11:14 | 14 | 62 | Turnover | 7–41 |
| NYJ | Q4 6:14 | 8 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 7–41 |
| MIA | Q4 1:12 | 5 | 57 | Touchdown | 14–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 20/41 | 218 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 11/19 | 189 | 3 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 19 | 115 | 6.1 | 1 |
| LaMont Jordan | 14 | 115 | 8.2 | 1 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
4.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.21
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.20