Closing spread
MIN -6.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.028EPA / play+0.162
- 43.5%Success rate50.0%
- -0.017EPA / dropback+0.287
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.097
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.7%
- 29.5%Third-down rate52.5%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.65Points / drive2.26
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.008EPA / play allowed+0.107
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 12–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. MIN are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 13/21 | 144 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 24 | 101 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Mike Cloud | 9 | 55 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 24/42 | 231 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.4%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.70
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.26