Closing spread
MIN -6.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.028EPA / play+0.162
- 43.5%Success rate50.0%
- -0.017EPA / dropback+0.287
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.097
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.7%
- 29.5%Third-down rate52.5%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.65Points / drive2.26
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.008EPA / play allowed+0.107
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 12–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. MIN are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 21 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 13:02 | 3 | -10 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 11:16 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q1 10:16 | 5 | 22 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| MIN | Q1 8:15 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–0 |
| NYG | Q1 6:12 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 10–0 |
| MIN | Q1 3:16 | 6 | 55 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| NYG | Q1 0:15 | 5 | 36 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| MIN | Q2 13:20 | 6 | 35 | Missed field goal | 17–0 |
| NYG | Q2 9:13 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 17–0 |
| MIN | Q2 7:51 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 17–0 |
| NYG | Q2 6:58 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–0 |
| MIN | Q2 5:03 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–0 |
| NYG | Q2 4:06 | 11 | 60 | Field goal | 20–0 |
| MIN | Q2 0:05 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 20–0 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 20–0 |
| MIN | Q3 12:15 | 5 | 31 | Turnover | 20–0 |
| NYG | Q3 9:48 | 9 | 65 | Touchdown | 27–0 |
| MIN | Q3 5:39 | 9 | 29 | Punt | 27–0 |
| NYG | Q3 0:50 | 7 | 51 | Touchdown | 34–0 |
| MIN | Q4 12:08 | 8 | 68 | Touchdown | 34–7 |
| NYG | Q4 9:01 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 34–7 |
| MIN | Q4 4:59 | 8 | 41 | Touchdown | 34–13 |
| NYG | Q4 2:44 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 34–13 |
| MIN | Q4 0:50 | 3 | 19 | End of half | 34–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 13/21 | 144 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 24 | 101 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Mike Cloud | 9 | 55 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 24/42 | 231 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.4%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.70
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.26