Closing spread
SD -6
Total
46
Model margin
+2.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:20 | 5 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 11:14 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 9:29 | 9 | 66 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 5:08 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 3:23 | 9 | 24 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LV | Q1 0:08 | 10 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 10:02 | 11 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| LV | Q2 4:56 | 7 | 19 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| LAC | Q2 2:33 | 4 | 53 | Touchdown | 7–28 |
| LV | Q2 0:36 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 7–28 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 50 | Touchdown | 7–35 |
| LV | Q3 12:05 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–35 |
| LAC | Q3 9:36 | 12 | 90 | Touchdown | 7–42 |
| LV | Q3 3:08 | 7 | 70 | Touchdown | 14–42 |
| LAC | Q3 0:02 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 14–42 |
| LV | Q4 10:41 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–42 |
| LAC | Q4 9:29 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–42 |
| LV | Q4 6:38 | 12 | 85 | Turnover | 14–42 |
| LAC | Q4 2:19 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–42 |
| LV | Q4 0:29 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–42 |
| LAC | Q4 0:20 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 14–42 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.56
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.