2004 · Week 9

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Mark Brunell

17·10

Lions

Detroit

QB Joey Harrington

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -3.5

Total

37

Model margin

+5.2est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapLions
  • -0.121EPA / play-0.071
  • 38.9%Success rate39.8%
  • -0.102EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.145EPA / rush-0.046
  • 6.6%Explosive rate9.0%
  • 31.9%Third-down rate32.3%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
  • 1.03Points / drive1.23
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%
  • -0.104EPA / play allowed+0.013

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. DET are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10DET @ WAS44–22DET
2024 · playoffsWAS @ DET45–31WAS
2022 · W2WAS @ DET27–36DET
2020 · W10WAS @ DET27–30DET
2019 · W12DET @ WAS16–19WAS
2016 · W7WAS @ DET17–20DET
2013 · W3DET @ WAS27–20DET
2010 · W8WAS @ DET25–37DET

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell6/175800
Clinton Portis1/11510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis341474.30
Ladell Betts5193.80
Rod Gardner1-10-10.00

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington26/5226911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shawn Bryson6213.50
Kevin Jones12201.70
Joey Harrington2147.00
Artose Pinner273.50
Az-Zahir Hakim100.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.8%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.70
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.17