Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
43
Model margin
+0.7est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.050
- 44.4%Success rate42.6%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.005
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.108
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.1%
- 37.2%Third-down rate36.3%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.97Points / drive1.44
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.027EPA / play allowed+0.080
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–27 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 12:46 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 10:39 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 7:20 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 6:26 | 2 | 59 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 6:10 | 6 | 46 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q1 3:10 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q1 1:02 | 4 | 14 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| DAL | Q2 14:53 | 3 | 52 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| PHI | Q2 13:15 | 6 | 77 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| DAL | Q2 9:45 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 21–7 |
| PHI | Q2 8:48 | 2 | 68 | Touchdown | 28–7 |
| DAL | Q2 8:02 | 9 | 67 | Touchdown | 28–14 |
| PHI | Q2 3:23 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 35–14 |
| DAL | Q2 0:28 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 35–14 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 71 | Touchdown | 35–21 |
| PHI | Q3 11:15 | 10 | 88 | Touchdown | 42–21 |
| DAL | Q3 6:04 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 42–21 |
| PHI | Q3 4:01 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 42–21 |
| DAL | Q3 2:22 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 42–21 |
| PHI | Q3 0:07 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 42–21 |
| DAL | Q4 12:53 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 42–21 |
| PHI | Q4 10:12 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 42–21 |
| DAL | Q4 8:12 | 9 | 44 | Opp touchdown | 49–21 |
| DAL | Q4 4:19 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 49–21 |
| PHI | Q4 2:49 | 5 | 9 | End of half | 49–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 15/28 | 345 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 12 | 73 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Brian Westbrook | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 21/30 | 254 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 1 |
| ReShard Lee | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.68