Closing spread
SEA -2.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. STL are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 71 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 12:23 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 10:58 | 9 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| SEA | Q1 6:51 | 8 | 50 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| LA | Q1 3:03 | 10 | 86 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| SEA | Q2 12:18 | 10 | 63 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| LA | Q2 6:50 | 1 | 3 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| SEA | Q2 6:34 | 5 | 19 | Field goal | 6–17 |
| LA | Q2 5:03 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 6–17 |
| SEA | Q2 1:41 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 6–17 |
| LA | Q2 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–17 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 22 | Turnover on downs | 6–17 |
| LA | Q3 13:13 | 7 | 32 | Field goal | 6–20 |
| SEA | Q3 9:32 | 8 | 47 | Field goal | 9–20 |
| LA | Q3 5:54 | 2 | 33 | Turnover | 9–20 |
| SEA | Q3 5:11 | 4 | 12 | Field goal | 12–20 |
| LA | Q3 3:54 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 12–20 |
| SEA | Q3 0:53 | 9 | 82 | Turnover | 12–20 |
| LA | Q4 12:05 | 8 | 43 | Punt | 12–20 |
| SEA | Q4 6:59 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 12–20 |
| LA | Q4 6:02 | 10 | 86 | Field goal | 12–23 |
| SEA | Q4 0:26 | 4 | 41 | End of half | 12–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 15/36 | 172 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 22 | 176 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.71
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.