Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play-0.059
- 44.9%Success rate43.2%
- +0.136EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.114
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.8%
- 44.9%Third-down rate40.8%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate53.2%
- 1.83Points / drive1.40
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.133EPA / play allowed-0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 15/21 | 138 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 29 | 129 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 13/25 | 165 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.60