Closing spread
SD -4.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. OAK are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 14 | 68 | Touchdown | 6–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:05 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LAC | Q1 8:02 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LV | Q1 5:48 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LAC | Q1 3:55 | 4 | 51 | Turnover | 6–0 |
| LV | Q1 1:30 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LAC | Q2 14:46 | 11 | 35 | Touchdown | 13–0 |
| LV | Q2 10:07 | 7 | 68 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| LAC | Q2 6:40 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LV | Q2 5:01 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LAC | Q2 1:02 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LAC | Q3 13:39 | 8 | 41 | Missed field goal | 13–7 |
| LV | Q3 9:31 | 1 | 14 | Turnover | 13–7 |
| LAC | Q3 9:17 | 8 | 22 | Field goal | 16–7 |
| LV | Q3 5:21 | 8 | 54 | Touchdown | 16–14 |
| LAC | Q3 1:58 | 13 | 78 | Touchdown | 23–14 |
| LV | Q4 11:06 | 11 | 51 | Field goal | 23–17 |
| LAC | Q4 7:11 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 23–17 |
| LV | Q4 4:22 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 23–17 |
| LAC | Q4 3:47 | 6 | 36 | End of half | 23–17 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.56
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.