2004 · Week 11 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
PHI -10
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.121EPA / play+0.072
- 38.9%Success rate44.4%
- -0.102EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.060
- 6.6%Explosive rate10.1%
- 31.9%Third-down rate37.2%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.03Points / drive1.97
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.104EPA / play allowed-0.027
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 21/34 | 162 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 17 | 37 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 18/26 | 222 | 4 | 1 |
| Koy Detmer | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Thomas Tapeh | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.66
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.14