2004 · Week 11 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
PHI -10
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.121EPA / play+0.072
- 38.9%Success rate44.4%
- -0.102EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.060
- 6.6%Explosive rate10.1%
- 31.9%Third-down rate37.2%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.03Points / drive1.97
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.104EPA / play allowed-0.027
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–22 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. PHI are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 41 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| PHI | Q1 7:59 | 13 | 77 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| WAS | Q1 0:36 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 3–7 |
| PHI | Q2 11:07 | 8 | 65 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| WAS | Q2 7:48 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–7 |
| PHI | Q2 5:46 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–7 |
| WAS | Q2 3:56 | 13 | 59 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| PHI | Q2 0:42 | 2 | 35 | End of half | 6–7 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–7 |
| WAS | Q3 13:20 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 6–7 |
| PHI | Q3 11:28 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| WAS | Q3 9:59 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 6–7 |
| PHI | Q3 8:18 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 6–14 |
| WAS | Q3 3:06 | 12 | 52 | Missed field goal | 6–14 |
| PHI | Q4 13:01 | 10 | 32 | Touchdown | 6–21 |
| WAS | Q4 8:56 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 6–21 |
| PHI | Q4 7:44 | 2 | 32 | Touchdown | 6–28 |
| WAS | Q4 6:54 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 6–28 |
| PHI | Q4 5:13 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 6–28 |
| WAS | Q4 2:03 | 2 | 8 | Turnover | 6–28 |
| PHI | Q4 1:51 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 21/34 | 162 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 17 | 37 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 18/26 | 222 | 4 | 1 |
| Koy Detmer | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Thomas Tapeh | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.66
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.14