Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
35.5
Model margin
-1.7est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.028
- 44.4%Success rate43.5%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.044
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.2%
- 37.2%Third-down rate29.5%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.97Points / drive1.65
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.027EPA / play allowed+0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 18/27 | 244 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 18 | 74 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Thomas Tapeh | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 6/21 | 148 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 19 | 110 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Jamaar Taylor | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.34
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.68