Closing spread
KC -3
Total
54
Model margin
+2.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 55 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 8:01 | 3 | 57 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 7:01 | 7 | 55 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 4:26 | 7 | 18 | Punt | 7–7 |
| KC | Q1 0:05 | 13 | 94 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 9:05 | 13 | 78 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| KC | Q2 3:11 | 11 | 53 | Field goal | 14–17 |
| LAC | Q2 0:45 | 4 | 36 | Missed field goal | 14–17 |
| KC | Q2 0:08 | 1 | 6 | End of half | 14–17 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 14–17 |
| LAC | Q3 14:46 | 9 | 45 | Punt | 14–17 |
| KC | Q3 11:03 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 14–17 |
| LAC | Q3 9:39 | 4 | 43 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| KC | Q3 7:24 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–17 |
| LAC | Q3 5:47 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–17 |
| KC | Q3 3:46 | 10 | 84 | Touchdown | 17–23 |
| LAC | Q4 14:17 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 24–29 |
| KC | Q4 10:13 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 24–31 |
| LAC | Q4 10:00 | 7 | 89 | Touchdown | 31–31 |
| KC | Q4 6:22 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 31–31 |
| LAC | Q4 4:50 | 6 | 8 | Field goal | 34–31 |
| KC | Q4 2:24 | 4 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 34–31 |
| LAC | Q4 1:47 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 34–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 21/34 | 208 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Blaylock | 8 | 57 | 7.1 | 2 |
| Larry Johnson | 10 | 43 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.84
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.