Closing spread
KC -3
Total
54
Model margin
+2.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 21/34 | 208 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Blaylock | 8 | 57 | 7.1 | 2 |
| Larry Johnson | 10 | 43 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.84
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.