Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
42
Model margin
+3.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.035
- 42.6%Success rate44.4%
- -0.005EPA / dropback+0.090
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.040
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- 36.3%Third-down rate37.2%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.44Points / drive1.81
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.080EPA / play allowed+0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. SEA are 9-5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 13:19 | 5 | 47 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 10:42 | 4 | 55 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q1 8:49 | 11 | 74 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| DAL | Q1 3:47 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–14 |
| SEA | Q1 1:32 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–14 |
| DAL | Q2 14:49 | 7 | 28 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| SEA | Q2 12:12 | 4 | 42 | Turnover | 6–14 |
| DAL | Q2 10:12 | 8 | 39 | Touchdown | 12–14 |
| SEA | Q2 6:08 | 7 | 42 | Turnover on downs | 12–14 |
| DAL | Q2 3:07 | 9 | 61 | Touchdown | 19–14 |
| SEA | Q2 0:32 | 3 | 22 | End of half | 19–14 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 19–14 |
| DAL | Q3 14:19 | 2 | 21 | Touchdown | 26–14 |
| SEA | Q3 13:45 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 26–14 |
| DAL | Q3 12:42 | 5 | 37 | Field goal | 29–14 |
| SEA | Q3 10:10 | 13 | 77 | Field goal | 29–17 |
| DAL | Q3 3:01 | 11 | 24 | Turnover | 29–17 |
| SEA | Q4 12:12 | 7 | 53 | Touchdown | 29–24 |
| DAL | Q4 9:30 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 29–24 |
| SEA | Q4 8:07 | 7 | 72 | Touchdown | 29–32 |
| DAL | Q4 5:29 | 4 | 0 | Turnover | 29–32 |
| SEA | Q4 4:23 | 4 | 41 | Touchdown | 29–39 |
| DAL | Q4 2:46 | 4 | 64 | Touchdown | 36–39 |
| SEA | Q4 1:45 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 36–39 |
| DAL | Q4 1:44 | 8 | 57 | Touchdown | 43–39 |
| SEA | Q4 0:32 | 2 | 28 | End of half | 43–39 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 18/34 | 225 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 30 | 198 | 6.6 | 3 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 28/40 | 414 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 21 | 83 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.27