2004 · Week 13

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Vinny Testaverde

43·39

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

SEA -7

Total

42

Model margin

+3.3est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.050EPA / play+0.035
  • 42.6%Success rate44.4%
  • -0.005EPA / dropback+0.090
  • -0.108EPA / rush-0.040
  • 9.1%Explosive rate9.3%
  • 36.3%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.81
  • 3.5%Turnover rate2.6%
  • +0.080EPA / play allowed+0.004

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. SEA are 9-5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13SEA @ DAL35–41DAL
2020 · W3DAL @ SEA31–38SEA
2018 · playoffsSEA @ DAL22–24DAL
2018 · W3DAL @ SEA13–24SEA
2017 · W16SEA @ DAL21–12SEA
2015 · W8SEA @ DAL13–12SEA
2014 · W6DAL @ SEA30–23DAL
2012 · W2DAL @ SEA7–27SEA

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde18/3422522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Julius Jones301986.63
Vinny Testaverde100.00

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck28/4041430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander21834.02
Matt Hasselbeck3165.30
Maurice Morris166.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

4.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.8%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.95
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.27