Closing spread
KC -1
Total
52
Model margin
+2.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. OAK are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 59 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 11:03 | 11 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LV | Q1 4:18 | 8 | 41 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| KC | Q1 1:06 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 7–6 |
| LV | Q2 12:41 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–6 |
| KC | Q2 11:40 | 2 | 23 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| LV | Q2 10:33 | 3 | 52 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| KC | Q2 9:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LV | Q2 7:30 | 3 | 57 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| KC | Q2 5:58 | 18 | 56 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| LV | Q2 0:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–20 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 91 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| LV | Q3 10:23 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 17–20 |
| KC | Q3 7:43 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–20 |
| LV | Q3 4:16 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 24–27 |
| KC | Q4 14:13 | 12 | 74 | Field goal | 27–27 |
| LV | Q4 6:59 | 6 | 36 | Punt | 27–27 |
| KC | Q4 4:01 | 5 | 88 | Touchdown | 34–27 |
| LV | Q4 2:04 | 7 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 34–27 |
| KC | Q4 0:49 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 34–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 23/35 | 340 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 20 | 118 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.21
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.