Closing spread
KC -1
Total
52
Model margin
+2.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. OAK are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 23/35 | 340 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 20 | 118 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.21
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.