2004 · Week 13 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
33
Model margin
+6.2est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.028EPA / play-0.121
- 43.5%Success rate38.9%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.102
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.145
- 8.2%Explosive rate6.6%
- 29.5%Third-down rate31.9%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.65Points / drive1.03
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.008EPA / play allowed-0.104
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 19/22 | 174 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 31 | 148 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 11 | 64 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.34
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.15