Closing spread
KC -2.5
Total
53
Model margin
+0.9est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.174EPA / play-0.012
- 50.4%Success rate41.5%
- +0.235EPA / dropback+0.035
- +0.091EPA / rush-0.091
- 10.6%Explosive rate8.8%
- 47.6%Third-down rate34.6%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 2.37Points / drive1.47
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.130EPA / play allowed+0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. TEN are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 18/32 | 244 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 7 | 104 | 14.9 | 2 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Trent Green | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Volek | 29/43 | 426 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 15 | 91 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Antowain Smith | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Billy Volek | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Troy Fleming | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
48.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.66
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.90