2004 · Week 14

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Trent Green

49·38

Titans

Tennessee

QB Billy Volek

The Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

KC -2.5

Total

53

Model margin

+0.9est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapTitans
  • +0.174EPA / play-0.012
  • 50.4%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.235EPA / dropback+0.035
  • +0.091EPA / rush-0.091
  • 10.6%Explosive rate8.8%
  • 47.6%Third-down rate34.6%
  • 70.9%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 2.37Points / drive1.47
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
  • +0.130EPA / play allowed+0.076

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. TEN are 9-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16KC @ TEN9–26TEN
2022 · W9TEN @ KC17–20KC
2021 · W7KC @ TEN3–27TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ KC24–35KC
2019 · W10KC @ TEN32–35TEN
2017 · playoffsTEN @ KC22–21TEN
2016 · W15TEN @ KC19–17TEN
2014 · W1TEN @ KC26–10TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–TEN
TENQ1 15:00539Turnover0–0
KCQ1 12:1237Punt0–0
TENQ1 10:19865Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 7:195-9Punt0–7
TENQ1 5:1739Punt0–7
KCQ1 3:52510Punt0–7
TENQ1 1:30680Touchdown0–14
KCQ2 13:27370Touchdown7–14
TENQ2 12:28624Turnover7–14
KCQ2 8:5047Turnover7–14
TENQ2 7:241059Missed field goal7–14
KCQ2 2:17660Touchdown14–14
TENQ2 1:17580Touchdown14–21
KCQ2 0:0900End of half14–21
KCQ3 15:001041Touchdown21–21
TENQ3 10:26758Touchdown21–28
KCQ3 7:22261Touchdown28–28
TENQ3 6:291132Punt28–28
KCQ3 0:3332Punt28–28
TENQ4 14:53617Punt28–28
KCQ4 11:0949Punt28–28
TENQ4 9:2037Punt28–28
KCQ4 7:35681Touchdown35–28
TENQ4 4:491061Touchdown35–35
KCQ4 2:2620Turnover35–35
TENQ4 2:0543Field goal35–38
KCQ4 1:39945Touchdown42–38
TENQ4 0:3228Opp touchdown49–38
TENQ4 0:0800Turnover49–38

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Green18/3224431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Larry Johnson710414.92
Derrick Blaylock14513.61
Trent Green2-1-0.50
Johnnie Morton1-8-8.00

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Billy Volek29/4342640

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Brown15916.11
Antowain Smith10313.10
Billy Volek22412.00
Troy Fleming11313.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.5%

Expected total

48.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.90