Closing spread
PIT -4.5
Total
35
Model margin
+4.2est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.040EPA / play+0.044
- 45.5%Success rate44.9%
- +0.023EPA / dropback+0.136
- +0.058EPA / rush-0.028
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.4%
- 42.9%Third-down rate44.9%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.86Points / drive1.83
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.048EPA / play allowed-0.133
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 10–6 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. PIT are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 17/31 | 189 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 24 | 72 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 9/19 | 144 | 0 | 2 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1/1 | 10 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 16 | 51 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Willie Parker | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.18