2004 · Week 14 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
PHI -8
Total
38.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.121
- 44.4%Success rate38.9%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.102
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.145
- 10.1%Explosive rate6.6%
- 37.2%Third-down rate31.9%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.97Points / drive1.03
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.027EPA / play allowed-0.104
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 21/38 | 260 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 29/45 | 251 | 0 | 1 |
| Clinton Portis | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 23 | 80 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Ladell Betts | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.66
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.91