2004 · Week 14 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
PHI -8
Total
38.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.121
- 44.4%Success rate38.9%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.102
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.145
- 10.1%Explosive rate6.6%
- 37.2%Third-down rate31.9%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.97Points / drive1.03
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.027EPA / play allowed-0.104
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–22 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. WAS are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 7 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 14:14 | 7 | 14 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| WAS | Q1 12:49 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q1 10:11 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 7–7 |
| WAS | Q1 6:20 | 10 | 40 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q1 0:56 | 3 | 78 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| WAS | Q2 14:45 | 8 | 41 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q2 9:57 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 7–7 |
| WAS | Q2 8:35 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q2 7:03 | 6 | 27 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| WAS | Q2 2:56 | 9 | 57 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q2 0:18 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 45 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| WAS | Q3 10:43 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–7 |
| PHI | Q3 8:37 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–7 |
| WAS | Q3 7:31 | 9 | 54 | Punt | 10–7 |
| PHI | Q3 2:50 | 7 | 68 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| WAS | Q3 0:25 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–7 |
| PHI | Q4 14:35 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 17–7 |
| WAS | Q4 13:36 | 4 | 41 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| PHI | Q4 12:04 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–14 |
| WAS | Q4 10:13 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–14 |
| PHI | Q4 8:52 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–14 |
| WAS | Q4 7:52 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 17–14 |
| PHI | Q4 4:59 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–14 |
| WAS | Q4 3:58 | 6 | 37 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| PHI | Q4 1:46 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–14 |
| WAS | Q4 0:43 | 4 | -16 | Turnover on downs | 17–14 |
| PHI | Q4 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 21/38 | 260 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 29/45 | 251 | 0 | 1 |
| Clinton Portis | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 23 | 80 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Ladell Betts | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.66
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.91