Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. OAK are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:03 | 7 | 93 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q1 9:12 | 11 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 3:08 | 5 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| TEN | Q1 1:04 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LV | Q2 14:17 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 7–14 |
| TEN | Q2 12:33 | 8 | 51 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| LV | Q2 8:42 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–14 |
| TEN | Q2 7:37 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 14–14 |
| LV | Q2 5:30 | 10 | 63 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| TEN | Q2 1:55 | 4 | 76 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| LV | Q2 1:29 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 21–21 |
| TEN | Q2 0:39 | 2 | 50 | Missed field goal | 21–21 |
| LV | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–21 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 21–21 |
| TEN | Q3 12:32 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 21–21 |
| LV | Q3 9:00 | 4 | 53 | Touchdown | 21–28 |
| TEN | Q3 7:28 | 3 | -7 | Turnover | 21–28 |
| LV | Q3 6:27 | 4 | 21 | Touchdown | 21–35 |
| TEN | Q3 4:30 | 6 | 21 | Turnover | 21–35 |
| LV | Q3 1:30 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 21–35 |
| TEN | Q3 0:46 | 12 | 52 | Touchdown | 28–35 |
| LV | Q4 11:53 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 28–35 |
| TEN | Q4 9:15 | 8 | 62 | Turnover on downs | 28–35 |
| LV | Q4 5:53 | 6 | 57 | Field goal | 28–38 |
| TEN | Q4 3:39 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 35–38 |
| LV | Q4 1:21 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 35–40 |
| TEN | Q4 0:17 | 1 | 0 | Safety | 35–40 |
| LV | Q4 0:08 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 35–40 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Volek | 40/60 | 492 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 16 | 45 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Troy Fleming | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Billy Volek | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.95
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.