Closing spread
KC -9.5
Total
60
Model margin
+2.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 14:15 | 3 | 10 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 13:25 | 7 | 40 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:34 | 6 | -7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 7:41 | 11 | 63 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 2:14 | 11 | 57 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| KC | Q2 11:40 | 9 | 44 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| LV | Q2 6:44 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 14–14 |
| KC | Q2 5:32 | 10 | 73 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| LV | Q2 1:54 | 8 | 64 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| KC | Q2 0:24 | 2 | 31 | Missed field goal | 21–21 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 21–21 |
| KC | Q3 11:32 | 6 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 21–21 |
| LV | Q3 8:58 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 21–21 |
| KC | Q3 7:31 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 21–21 |
| LV | Q3 4:58 | 9 | 55 | Field goal | 24–21 |
| KC | Q3 0:09 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 24–21 |
| LV | Q4 12:22 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 24–21 |
| KC | Q4 11:14 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 24–28 |
| LV | Q4 6:11 | 8 | 26 | Field goal | 27–28 |
| KC | Q4 3:49 | 7 | 29 | Turnover | 27–28 |
| LV | Q4 1:42 | 6 | 39 | Field goal | 30–28 |
| KC | Q4 1:03 | 4 | 16 | Field goal | 30–31 |
| LV | Q4 0:22 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 30–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 32/45 | 358 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 25 | 79 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.92
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.