Closing spread
STL -4
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–4 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 48.1 points. STL are 3-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 4/14 | 41 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3/3 | 36 | 1 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 1/6 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Reno Mahe | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Thomas Tapeh | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.77
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.