Closing spread
STL -4
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.8 points. STL are 4-12-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 9:03 | 12 | 63 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 1:38 | 6 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q2 13:39 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LA | Q2 11:23 | 9 | 71 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q2 6:31 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LA | Q2 5:47 | 14 | 70 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| PHI | Q2 0:42 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–10 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LA | Q3 14:22 | 11 | 51 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| PHI | Q3 7:38 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–17 |
| LA | Q3 5:57 | 12 | 56 | Punt | 7–17 |
| PHI | Q4 14:25 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 7–17 |
| LA | Q4 13:26 | 3 | 29 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| PHI | Q4 11:58 | 2 | -5 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| LA | Q4 10:57 | 9 | 25 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| PHI | Q4 5:24 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 7–20 |
| LA | Q4 4:26 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 7–20 |
| PHI | Q4 1:52 | 8 | 52 | End of half | 7–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 4/14 | 41 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3/3 | 36 | 1 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 1/6 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Reno Mahe | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Thomas Tapeh | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.77
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.