2004 · Week 16 · Division
Final
Texas Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 61°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
WAS -2.5
Total
35
Model margin
+1.3est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.121EPA / play-0.050
- 38.9%Success rate42.6%
- -0.102EPA / dropback-0.005
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.108
- 6.6%Explosive rate9.1%
- 31.9%Third-down rate36.3%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.03Points / drive1.44
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.104EPA / play allowed+0.080
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 19/29 | 158 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladell Betts | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 23/39 | 234 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 22 | 57 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.25