Closing spread
NYG -1
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play-0.028
- 42.6%Success rate43.5%
- -0.005EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.044
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.2%
- 36.3%Third-down rate29.5%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.44Points / drive1.65
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.080EPA / play allowed+0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 13:32 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 11:32 | 4 | 44 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 8:33 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 6:23 | 5 | 19 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q1 4:15 | 14 | 62 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| DAL | Q2 12:48 | 5 | 40 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| NYG | Q2 10:25 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 3–7 |
| DAL | Q2 7:25 | 9 | 57 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| NYG | Q2 1:54 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–7 |
| DAL | Q2 1:07 | 7 | 44 | Field goal | 9–7 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 43 | Turnover | 9–7 |
| DAL | Q3 10:24 | 16 | 81 | Touchdown | 16–7 |
| NYG | Q3 0:45 | 3 | 19 | Touchdown | 16–14 |
| DAL | Q4 14:55 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 16–14 |
| NYG | Q4 14:41 | 6 | 25 | Touchdown | 16–21 |
| DAL | Q4 11:51 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 16–21 |
| NYG | Q4 10:43 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 16–21 |
| DAL | Q4 8:29 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| NYG | Q4 1:49 | 6 | 51 | Touchdown | 24–28 |
| DAL | Q4 0:11 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 24–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 23/30 | 231 | 1 | 0 |
| Patrick Crayton | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 29 | 149 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Eddie George | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 18/27 | 144 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 24 | 95 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.34
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.20