Closing spread
KC -6.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. SD are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 55 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 10:56 | 12 | 67 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 4:48 | 15 | 82 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| KC | Q2 12:34 | 12 | 54 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q2 7:08 | 8 | 81 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| KC | Q2 2:24 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q2 1:52 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| KC | Q2 1:02 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q2 0:52 | 5 | 64 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| KC | Q2 0:12 | 1 | 40 | End of half | 3–17 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 3–17 |
| LAC | Q3 13:15 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–17 |
| KC | Q3 11:35 | 7 | 49 | Turnover on downs | 3–17 |
| LAC | Q3 8:04 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 3–17 |
| KC | Q3 5:34 | 11 | 34 | Missed field goal | 3–17 |
| LAC | Q3 0:22 | 8 | 21 | Punt | 3–17 |
| KC | Q4 10:52 | 4 | 18 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| LAC | Q4 9:22 | 4 | 39 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| KC | Q4 7:11 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| LAC | Q4 4:10 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| KC | Q4 4:09 | 8 | 61 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| LAC | Q4 2:10 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–24 |
| KC | Q4 0:59 | 4 | 21 | Turnover | 17–24 |
| LAC | Q4 0:15 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 17–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 33/53 | 373 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 17 | 46 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Chris Horn | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.13
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.