Closing spread
SEA -4
Total
51
Model margin
+2.4est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:33 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:20 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 10:32 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:11 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 6:35 | 8 | 46 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| LA | Q1 2:05 | 6 | 75 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| SEA | Q2 13:32 | 11 | 79 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| LA | Q2 8:18 | 11 | 45 | Punt | 14–10 |
| SEA | Q2 4:17 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 14–10 |
| LA | Q2 2:03 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 14–10 |
| SEA | Q2 1:08 | 6 | 29 | Turnover on downs | 14–10 |
| LA | Q2 0:01 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 14–10 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 69 | Field goal | 14–13 |
| LA | Q3 8:52 | 11 | 48 | Field goal | 17–13 |
| SEA | Q3 2:35 | 7 | 76 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| LA | Q4 13:43 | 12 | 49 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| SEA | Q4 8:07 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 20–20 |
| LA | Q4 5:42 | 7 | 76 | Touchdown | 27–20 |
| SEA | Q4 2:11 | 8 | 59 | Turnover on downs | 27–20 |
| LA | Q4 0:21 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 27/43 | 341 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 15 | 40 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.42
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.