Closing spread
PIT -9
Total
35.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.040EPA / play+0.044
- 45.5%Success rate44.9%
- +0.023EPA / dropback+0.136
- +0.058EPA / rush-0.028
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.4%
- 42.9%Third-down rate44.9%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.86Points / drive1.83
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.048EPA / play allowed-0.133
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 10–6 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. PIT are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 21/33 | 182 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 19 | 77 | 4.1 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 17/30 | 181 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 27 | 101 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+4.66