Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.057
- 44.6%Success rate43.9%
- +0.186EPA / dropback+0.202
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.067
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.7%
- 42.3%Third-down rate35.7%
- 67.8%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.91Points / drive1.99
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.034EPA / play allowed-0.084
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 15–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 13:20 | 7 | 46 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q1 9:47 | 1 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NE | Q1 9:32 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PIT | Q1 7:39 | 7 | 14 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| NE | Q1 4:42 | 15 | 75 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| PIT | Q2 12:05 | 2 | 50 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| NE | Q2 11:08 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–10 |
| PIT | Q2 9:39 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 7–10 |
| NE | Q2 7:19 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–10 |
| PIT | Q2 5:49 | 7 | 17 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| NE | Q2 2:34 | 8 | 55 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| PIT | Q2 0:31 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–10 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 28 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| PIT | Q3 12:24 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–10 |
| NE | Q3 10:57 | 4 | 5 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| PIT | Q3 9:04 | 5 | 22 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| NE | Q3 6:08 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 7–13 |
| PIT | Q3 3:20 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–13 |
| NE | Q3 1:05 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| PIT | Q3 0:14 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 10–13 |
| NE | Q4 14:19 | 7 | 86 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| PIT | Q4 10:37 | 7 | 3 | Punt | 17–13 |
| NE | Q4 7:27 | 6 | 59 | Field goal | 20–13 |
| PIT | Q4 3:19 | 11 | 38 | Touchdown | 20–20 |
| NE | Q4 1:21 | 4 | 37 | Field goal | 23–20 |
| PIT | Q4 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 31/41 | 372 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 22 | 61 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Kevin Faulk | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 12/28 | 216 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 17 | 55 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.39