Closing spread
NE -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.082EPA / play+0.076
- 39.5%Success rate44.6%
- -0.036EPA / dropback+0.186
- -0.141EPA / rush-0.083
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- 37.9%Third-down rate42.3%
- 43.1%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
- 1.44Points / drive1.91
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.069EPA / play allowed+0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 20/33 | 263 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 31 | 136 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Shaud Williams | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 14/21 | 199 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 18 | 72 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Patrick Pass | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.35
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.07