2005 · Week 9 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
PK
Total
36.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.066
- 41.2%Success rate39.7%
- +0.125EPA / dropback-0.064
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.068
- 7.4%Explosive rate6.8%
- 43.3%Third-down rate38.9%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.90Points / drive1.36
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.118EPA / play allowed-0.097
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 11/18 | 216 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 2 |
| DeShaun Foster | 16 | 23 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Simms | 25/42 | 259 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.34