Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
34.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.138
- 41.2%Success rate37.0%
- +0.125EPA / dropback-0.147
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.129
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- 43.3%Third-down rate28.3%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
- 1.90Points / drive1.08
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.118EPA / play allowed-0.167
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 9–4 since 1999
CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CHI are 6-5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 13:33 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 12:34 | 3 | 8 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 11:50 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q1 10:00 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 7:26 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q1 6:31 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| CAR | Q1 5:41 | 4 | 51 | Missed field goal | 0–10 |
| CHI | Q1 2:42 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 0–10 |
| CAR | Q2 14:48 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–10 |
| CHI | Q2 11:18 | 7 | 39 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| CAR | Q2 7:52 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–13 |
| CHI | Q2 6:28 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–13 |
| CAR | Q2 4:34 | 8 | 34 | Punt | 0–13 |
| CHI | Q2 1:09 | 2 | 10 | End of half | 0–13 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–13 |
| CHI | Q3 11:38 | 7 | 45 | Punt | 0–13 |
| CAR | Q3 7:29 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–13 |
| CHI | Q3 5:31 | 7 | 42 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| CAR | Q3 1:45 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–13 |
| CHI | Q3 1:20 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–13 |
| CAR | Q4 14:17 | 11 | 56 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| CHI | Q4 8:31 | 9 | 42 | Punt | 3–13 |
| CAR | Q4 3:38 | 14 | 32 | Turnover on downs | 3–13 |
| CHI | Q4 0:53 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 22/38 | 235 | 0 | 2 |
| DeShaun Foster | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 15/26 | 136 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 25 | 87 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.06