Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
34.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.138
- 41.2%Success rate37.0%
- +0.125EPA / dropback-0.147
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.129
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- 43.3%Third-down rate28.3%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
- 1.90Points / drive1.08
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.118EPA / play allowed-0.167
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 9–4 since 1999
CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CHI are 6-5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 22/38 | 235 | 0 | 2 |
| DeShaun Foster | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 15/26 | 136 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 25 | 87 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.06