2005 · Week 12

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Kyle Orton

13·10

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Chris Simms

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

TB -3

Total

33

Model margin

+2.8est.

TB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.138EPA / play-0.066
  • 37.0%Success rate39.7%
  • -0.147EPA / dropback-0.064
  • -0.129EPA / rush-0.068
  • 8.0%Explosive rate6.8%
  • 28.3%Third-down rate38.9%
  • 49.7%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 1.08Points / drive1.36
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.167EPA / play allowed-0.097

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 10–10 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. TB are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2CHI @ TB17–27TB
2021 · W7CHI @ TB3–38TB
2020 · W5TB @ CHI19–20CHI
2018 · W4TB @ CHI10–48CHI
2017 · W2CHI @ TB7–29TB
2016 · W10CHI @ TB10–36TB
2015 · W16CHI @ TB26–21CHI
2014 · W12TB @ CHI13–21CHI

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton14/2813411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones25722.90
Adrian Peterson5275.40
Kyle Orton3196.30

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Simms19/3020200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cadillac Williams20844.20
Michael Pittman11616.00
Chris Simms1-1-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.27
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.84