Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
38
Model margin
-0.7est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.082
- 44.6%Success rate39.5%
- +0.186EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.141
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.0%
- 42.3%Third-down rate37.9%
- 67.8%Red-zone TD rate43.1%
- 1.91Points / drive1.44
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.034EPA / play allowed+0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 13:18 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 12:08 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 10:38 | 4 | 56 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 9:06 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 5:33 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 3:47 | 10 | 54 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q2 12:55 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NE | Q2 12:34 | 9 | 49 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| BUF | Q2 8:13 | 8 | 23 | Punt | 14–0 |
| NE | Q2 3:42 | 13 | 74 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| BUF | Q2 0:08 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 14–0 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–0 |
| NE | Q3 13:58 | 7 | 65 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| BUF | Q3 9:40 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| NE | Q3 9:32 | 7 | 76 | Touchdown | 21–0 |
| BUF | Q3 5:27 | 10 | 25 | Missed field goal | 21–0 |
| NE | Q3 0:23 | 14 | 73 | Touchdown | 28–0 |
| BUF | Q4 8:18 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 28–0 |
| NE | Q4 7:02 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 34–0 |
| BUF | Q4 2:52 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 35–0 |
| BUF | Q4 2:43 | 2 | 51 | Touchdown | 35–7 |
| NE | Q4 2:14 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 35–7 |
| BUF | Q4 0:25 | 1 | 25 | End of half | 35–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 29/38 | 329 | 2 | 2 |
| Doug Flutie | 1/2 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 22 | 102 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Mike Cloud | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Doug Flutie | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 10/27 | 181 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Shaud Williams | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 8 | 3 | 0.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.73