Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
38
Model margin
-0.7est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.082
- 44.6%Success rate39.5%
- +0.186EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.141
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.0%
- 42.3%Third-down rate37.9%
- 67.8%Red-zone TD rate43.1%
- 1.91Points / drive1.44
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.034EPA / play allowed+0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 29/38 | 329 | 2 | 2 |
| Doug Flutie | 1/2 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 22 | 102 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Mike Cloud | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Doug Flutie | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 10/27 | 181 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Shaud Williams | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 8 | 3 | 0.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.73