2005 · Week 14 · Division
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
CAR -5.5
Total
37
Model margin
+4.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play+0.011
- 39.7%Success rate41.2%
- -0.064EPA / dropback+0.125
- -0.068EPA / rush-0.116
- 6.8%Explosive rate7.4%
- 38.9%Third-down rate43.3%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.36Points / drive1.90
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.097EPA / play allowed-0.118
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–24 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 27-22 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 53 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 11:33 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 9:53 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 7:45 | 8 | 49 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q1 4:04 | 6 | -15 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TB | Q1 0:56 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q2 14:10 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TB | Q2 11:13 | 8 | 20 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q2 7:00 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TB | Q2 4:31 | 11 | 44 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–0 |
| CAR | Q3 13:23 | 7 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 10–0 |
| TB | Q3 9:52 | 10 | 42 | Field goal | 13–0 |
| CAR | Q3 4:29 | 4 | 63 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| TB | Q3 1:20 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 13–3 |
| CAR | Q4 14:41 | 5 | 23 | Turnover | 13–3 |
| TB | Q4 11:38 | 10 | 58 | Touchdown | 20–3 |
| CAR | Q4 5:39 | 7 | 36 | Turnover on downs | 20–3 |
| TB | Q4 3:51 | 4 | -1 | Punt | 20–3 |
| CAR | Q4 2:39 | 10 | 46 | Touchdown | 20–10 |
| TB | Q4 0:23 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Simms | 20/27 | 138 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 29 | 112 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 21/33 | 220 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 14 | 46 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.79