Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
31
Model margin
+5.8est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.138
- 41.2%Success rate37.0%
- +0.125EPA / dropback-0.147
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.129
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- 43.3%Third-down rate28.3%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
- 1.90Points / drive1.08
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.118EPA / play allowed-0.167
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 9–4 since 1999
CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CHI are 6-5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 24/33 | 319 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 16 | 54 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 17/41 | 192 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 20 | 80 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Rex Grossman | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.21
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.83