Closing spread
NE -10
Total
41
Model margin
+5.9est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play+0.063
- 41.6%Success rate44.2%
- -0.033EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.157EPA / rush-0.007
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- +3.28CPOE+0.89
- 30.9%Third-down rate43.7%
- 58.9%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.31Points / drive1.82
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NE are 32-21-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 1 | -16 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 14:48 | 9 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| BUF | Q1 10:43 | 11 | 63 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| NE | Q1 4:20 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 10–7 |
| BUF | Q1 1:58 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| NE | Q2 11:40 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 17–7 |
| BUF | Q2 8:58 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–7 |
| NE | Q2 7:21 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 17–7 |
| BUF | Q2 6:33 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 17–7 |
| NE | Q2 5:20 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–7 |
| BUF | Q2 3:08 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 17–7 |
| NE | Q2 0:56 | 4 | 21 | End of half | 17–7 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 69 | Turnover on downs | 17–7 |
| NE | Q3 9:24 | 12 | 93 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| BUF | Q3 2:52 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–14 |
| NE | Q3 1:05 | 13 | 63 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| BUF | Q4 9:33 | 3 | -9 | Safety | 17–19 |
| NE | Q4 8:33 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–19 |
| BUF | Q4 8:14 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 17–19 |
| NE | Q4 6:15 | 9 | 50 | End of half | 17–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 15/23 | 164 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 20 | 70 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 1 |
| J.P. Losman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 11/23 | 163 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 17 | 86 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 16 | 73 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.86