2006 · Week 5 · Division
Final
Louisiana Superdome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
NO -7
Total
34.5
Model margin
+5.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.186EPA / play+0.072
- 37.6%Success rate44.8%
- -0.208EPA / dropback+0.157
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.049
- 6.4%Explosive rate9.5%
- -4.51CPOE+2.07
- 37.4%Third-down rate45.7%
- 43.2%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 0.82Points / drive1.91
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Gradkowski | 20/31 | 225 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 20 | 111 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 21/33 | 171 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 15 | 123 | 8.2 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+5.24