Closing spread
NE -5.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play-0.089
- 44.2%Success rate41.6%
- +0.118EPA / dropback-0.033
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.157
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.4%
- +0.89CPOE+3.28
- 43.7%Third-down rate30.9%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate58.9%
- 1.82Points / drive1.31
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18/27 | 195 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Laurence Maroney | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Chad Jackson | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Reche Caldwell | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 16/25 | 193 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 20 | 59 | 3.0 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.29