2006 · Week 9 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 16mph
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.186
- 44.8%Success rate37.6%
- +0.157EPA / dropback-0.208
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.149
- 9.5%Explosive rate6.4%
- +2.07CPOE-4.51
- 45.7%Third-down rate37.4%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate43.2%
- 1.91Points / drive0.82
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 24/32 | 314 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 15 | 32 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 11 | -5 | -0.5 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Gradkowski | 18/31 | 185 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.67