2006 · Week 15

Final / OT

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Bruce Gradkowski

31·34

Bears

Chicago

QB Rex Grossman

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

CHI -13

Total

35

Model margin

+5.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapBears
  • -0.186EPA / play-0.046
  • 37.6%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.208EPA / dropback-0.039
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.054
  • 6.4%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -4.51CPOE-3.50
  • 37.4%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 43.2%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
  • 0.82Points / drive1.80
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 10–10 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CHI are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2CHI @ TB17–27TB
2021 · W7CHI @ TB3–38TB
2020 · W5TB @ CHI19–20CHI
2018 · W4TB @ CHI10–48CHI
2017 · W2CHI @ TB7–29TB
2016 · W10CHI @ TB10–36TB
2015 · W16CHI @ TB26–21CHI
2014 · W12TB @ CHI13–21CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
TBQ1 13:1537Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:39762Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 7:4235Punt0–7
CHIQ1 6:2333Punt0–7
TBQ1 4:3333Punt0–7
CHIQ1 2:53723Punt0–7
TBQ2 14:52726Punt0–7
CHIQ2 11:0343Punt0–7
TBQ2 9:543-1Field goal3–7
CHIQ2 8:19856Touchdown3–14
TBQ2 3:58310Punt3–14
CHIQ2 2:50417Punt3–14
TBQ2 1:5037Punt3–14
CHIQ2 1:28565Touchdown3–21
TBQ2 0:2327End of half3–21
TBQ3 15:0036Punt3–21
CHIQ3 13:253-8Punt3–21
TBQ3 11:15510Punt3–21
CHIQ3 9:00948Field goal3–24
TBQ3 5:221077Touchdown10–24
CHIQ3 0:2500Touchdown10–24
TBQ3 0:17316Touchdown17–24
CHIQ4 14:13877Touchdown17–31
TBQ4 9:2310Turnover17–31
CHIQ4 9:1034Punt17–31
TBQ4 7:25595Touchdown24–31
CHIQ4 6:1339Punt24–31
TBQ4 4:31250Touchdown31–31
CHIQ4 3:443-4Punt31–31
TBQ4 1:5136Punt31–31
CHIQ4 1:17214End of half31–31
TBOT214Turnover31–31
CHIOT23Missed field goal31–31
TBOT37Punt31–31
CHIOT422Punt31–31
TBOT312Punt31–31
CHIOT543Field goal31–34

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Rattay20/3526831
Bruce Gradkowski5/113700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cadillac Williams11262.40
Michael Pittman252.50

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman29/4433920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones17684.01
Cedric Benson15533.51
Adrian Peterson2136.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.8%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.15