2006 · Week 15

Final / OT

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Bruce Gradkowski

31·34

Bears

Chicago

QB Rex Grossman

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

CHI -13

Total

35

Model margin

+5.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapBears
  • -0.186EPA / play-0.046
  • 37.6%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.208EPA / dropback-0.039
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.054
  • 6.4%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -4.51CPOE-3.50
  • 37.4%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 43.2%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
  • 0.82Points / drive1.80
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 10–10 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CHI are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2CHI @ TB17–27TB
2021 · W7CHI @ TB3–38TB
2020 · W5TB @ CHI19–20CHI
2018 · W4TB @ CHI10–48CHI
2017 · W2CHI @ TB7–29TB
2016 · W10CHI @ TB10–36TB
2015 · W16CHI @ TB26–21CHI
2014 · W12TB @ CHI13–21CHI

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Rattay20/3526831
Bruce Gradkowski5/113700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cadillac Williams11262.40
Michael Pittman252.50

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman29/4433920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones17684.01
Cedric Benson15533.51
Adrian Peterson2136.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.8%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.15